Tuesday, 17 July 2018

永信东南亚(YSPSAH)- 现有竞争地位,表明更高赢率

永信东南亚(YSPSAH)- 现有竞争地位,表明更高赢率






即合同采购的自由化和新的健康计划,永信东南亚有能力跟进制药行业的新发展。同时,继续看好永信的估值不高(市盈率为9.4倍,低于5年均值11倍),出口驱动型增长和行业前景改善。

根据永信过去从卫生部获得合同的记录,其机会一直很低,即不到政府年度支出40亿令吉的1%。随着卫生部采购流程的潜在自由化,这意味着要获得更多这些合同可能会有进一步的好处,对永信是一个恩惠,使得永信的整体竞争力。

根据马来西亚竞争委员会的制药行业报告,制药公司在许可进口商和本地制造商(其中包括永信,Apex Healthcare,Hovid和Kotra等当地上市公司)之间有着广泛的区别。尽管与默克,辉瑞和拜耳等公司竞争,但永信已经在马来西亚获得了2.9%的特许药品公司市场份额。与当地上市公司相比,永信的营业利润仅次于CCM Duopharma。这表明,凭借纯粹的竞争力和优点,永信可能会获得更多的卫生部合约,而不是目前的<1%的赢率。此外,考虑到政府相对于品牌药物更倾向于使用更实惠的仿制药。现有的竞争地位表明更高的赢率,有利于永信。

希盟领导的政府打算在政府的头100天内推出一项新的医疗计划,Peduli Sihat。然而,鉴于对政府财政状况的审议,卫生政策仍未确定。该计划每年向全国每个B40家庭提供500令吉的援助(按收入计算,马来西亚家庭占40%)。它既可以补充并且可以方便地获得私立医院和诊所的初级保健服务。根据2015年约有270万B40家庭,这一金额在13亿令吉的范围内。一旦根据咨询费用的最佳案例底价进行调整,13亿令吉的医药成分可能达到5亿令吉。这将立即推动现有50亿令吉的私人医药支出。新的健康计划Peduli Sihat的潜在实施可能会成为私人医药支出的直接福音。预计它将推动对仿制药的需求,从而使永信等仿制药生产商受益。

随着该集团蓬勃发展的出口许可证,预计将逐步推动出口销售。催化剂将由潜在增长的出口市场推动,这些出口许可证很好地定位了永信,以挖掘人口众多的潜在市场和较低的医疗保健支出/人均,从而在可预见的未来支撑增长。再加上出口销售作为收入的一个越来越重要的组成部分,反映出更多样化和出口带动的强劲增长前景。

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Thursday, 28 June 2018

美特工业 - 继续扩展

美特工业 - 继续扩展




美特工业经营两个业务部门:制造服装和包装材料。 服装销售额占集团收入的90%以上。 其服装销售额超过90%来自耐克公司。该集团年产能为3560万件,利用率为70%,并计划到2020年将产能提高至5000万件。公司将其产品扩展到本地大马,越南,美国,欧洲,中国,加拿大,泰国,印度尼西亚和日本的市场。

美特工业分别公布其2018年收入和核心净利润分别为2.2亿令吉(下降26.4%)和2,390万令吉(下跌38.7%)。总体而言,2018年是一个表现不佳的年份,收入和核心净利润分别下降5.3%和11.1%,其主要受到收到的销售订单减少,运营费用特别是劳动力成本上涨以及不利的外汇走势影响。美特工业宣布第四季度每股5仙的较低股息7仙,全年派息为20仙,相当于2018年的35.6%派息。美特工业的估值不高,基本面稳健(截至2018年4月30日净现金额为1.929亿令吉或1.19令吉/股),有吸引力的股息收益率。

自2018以来,两家新计划生产设施之一已经开始生产,而第二家工厂仍在建设中,所以预计2019年的表现会更好,这得益于两家新制造工厂的新产能和更稳定的外汇流动。

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堡发资源 - 高生产成本拖低收益

堡发资源 - 高生产成本拖低收益




堡发资源的前半年的收入比较于去年同期下降了1.3%至2.8740亿令吉,主要是因为越南业务的销售额下降及越南盾兑美元汇率走弱。但由于用于美国市场的面板卧室套件以及传统办公家具的需求依然强劲使得大马本地业务的销售额增长,所以抵销部分下滑业绩。

由于大马本地和越南的业务经历了利润率被压缩,2018年年度上半年的息税折旧摊销前利润率下降至8.5%,部分原因是因为马币兑美元升值而导致其产品售价以马币计算而拉低赚幅; 其二,原材料成本和直接人工成本齐增加。截至2018年4月30日,美元收于3.92令吉,而一年前为4.34令吉。另外值得注意的是,堡发资源已于2018年1月,其大马工厂的火灾事件与其保险公司达成了430万令吉的火险赔偿协议。考虑到受损的资产总账面净值为300万令吉烈火,堡发资源录得净赚130万令吉。

由于生产成本上升导致利润率低于预期,剔除一次性项目后,堡发资源的前半年的核心净利润达到1,970万令吉下滑33%即低于预期。

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Thursday, 21 June 2018

CBIP - 价值浮现

CBIP - 价值浮现



虽然CBIP在油厂工程和SPV分部补充订单的短期前景可能仍然疲软,但CBIP值得重新审视,因为价值已经浮现。由于持续低的毛棕榈油价格环境,CBIP在其油厂工程和SPV分部补充其订单的近期前景仍然疲软, 油厂工程部门的订单补货速度低于预期,以及部长职位变更(GE14结果发布后),这可能会导致SPV部门新合同授予延期。

价值已经出现。尽管近期的补贴前景不佳,但仍然看到CBIP的价值,因为砂捞越种植园资产(通过联营和合资)和加里曼丹(32,000公顷,其中约11,574公顷,或36%已经以及净现金4,270万令吉(或每股8仙)。

上游种植资产价值54仙/股。假设保守估价CBIP的土地储备价格为RM15,000 /公顷(种植面积)和RM500 /公顷(对于未种植面积),这低于目前的市场估值(至少为RM30,000 /公顷/区)。

6仙的DPS可能会继续。鉴于其净现金为4,270万令吉(或每股8仙),并且未来会出现巨额资本支出。目前股价为1.30令吉,股息转化为4.6%的不错收益率。

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Thursday, 24 May 2018

AWC设施方案 - 利润率提高

AWC设施方案 - 利润率提高




AWC的3QFY18净利增长36.3%至690万令吉,去年同期为500万令吉,这是由于盈利水平较高,收入贡献较强,收入达RM75.3mil 增长11.6%。

尽管去年同期的净利润也从去年同期的1,570万令吉增长8.2%至1亿1千7百万令吉,尽管收入略有下降至20,980万令吉同比减少0.2%。累计净利较高的主要原因是利润率较高,加上较低的税收支出。

然而,报告的净利润和收入比预期低,主要是由于进度费用较低,还受到前几个季度延迟的项目所拖累。

同时,尽管部分被较低的税收支出和较低的非控股权益所抵消,但环境和工程部门的税前利润疲软,影响AWC的整体表现。年初至今综合设施管理部门的税前利润(包括分部间交易)从去年同期上涨88.0%至1,460万令吉。另一方面,由于项目延误,成本超支以及缺乏资金,环境和工程部门贡献的年初至今税前收益分别下降至860万令吉下跌46.1%和360万令吉下跌52.5%。

展望未来,随着集团继续成本超支和项目延误,可能导致将来收益会减少。即便如此,由于环境和工程部门确保的新合同以及持续的成本重组计划,预计在2019年更有利的收入贡献支撑。

如果预计AWC超过10亿令吉的巨额订单将使该集团的业务持续到2025年。AWC董事会计划于2018年6月5日举行特别股东大会进行表决收购60%的股权铁路服务供应商Trackwork。在董事会批准之前,暂时排除Trackwork的潜在盈利贡献,相信盈利合并将提高AWC的盈利。根据Trackwork的供应商保证的累计2,000万令吉利润,集团底线可能增加13%-20%。

其投资风险包括由于建筑行业固有的周期性风险而导致订单补货率低于预期以及项目延误,这可能导致不可预见的成本增加和声誉损失。公用事业成本的增加和消耗品价格的上涨也可能压缩到综合设施管理合同的利润率,而原材料成本的任何波动也可能影响AWC在已经饱和的暖通空调市场的利润率。



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Friday, 18 May 2018

PWROOT - Techincal view on May 2018






Power Root was testing the MYR1.70 level in its latest session. A bullish bias may be present above this point with a target price of MYR1.90, followed by MYR2.04. The stock may consolidate further if it cannot breach above the MYR1.70 threshold decisively in the near term. Support may be found at MYR1.37, where traders can exit upon a breach to limit the downside risk.


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All posts and documents submitted in this blog are solely for open discussion and education purposes only. All recommendations and opinion provided are solely for your consideration only and you should exercise your own judgment in forming your own investment decision(s). Please also be informed that equity investment is risky and we recommend you to conduct sufficient searches for information in addition to referring our recommendations and/or opinion herein, prior to making an investment decision.

You should take full responsibility of your investment decision(s) and we accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of our recommendations and/or opinion provided herein or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Comments and opinions forwarded/provided by members/followers of this blog do not belong to the Admin and we take no responsibility of such. 

合成工业 (HUPSENG) - 仍在努力经营,创造佳绩

合成工业 (HUPSENG) - 仍在努力经营,创造佳绩




由于国内和出口市场销售季节性下滑,收入下滑10.5%至7,710万令吉。 此外,毛利率也从38%下降至36.7%是因为较高的投入成本而导致税后盈利较低(-23.0%)。其主要原因是投入成本较高(以棕榈油,面粉和食糖等原料为主),而运营成本仍然很高(管理和营销费用包括员工,运输,能源成本占收入的五分之一)。 由于毛棕榈油价格较便宜,相信未来利润率将继续提高。


利润连续两年下降后,6月1日开始,GST 降至0%将消费者信心逐步改善,预示着提高该集团的盈利。 尽管第一季度的毛利率较低,但毛利率下降将导致原材料成本下降。 估计2018年棕榈油价格平均价格将低于2,500令吉/吨,而2017年平均价格为2,715令吉。迄今为止,棕榈油价格平均为2,465令吉/吨。 请注意,棕榈油和面粉占集团原材料成本的70%以上。


合成工业表示,由于现代化商店的销售收入增长以及分销商网络规模扩大,销售额有所增长。通过培育自己的分销网络打开中国市场的计划尚未起飞。预计合成工业的额外增长将来自中东和中国市场出口销售的增长,因为有更高的销售激励措施; 和分销商的促销赞助活动。 相信2018年国内销售将增长2.8%。


合成工业仍在努力管理经营和投入成本,以及强劲的股息收益率,健康的净现金状况和预期的利润率扩张。基于60%的股息政策,预计该集团在2018年支付6仙(与2017财年相似),意味着潜在的股息收益率为4.8%。


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You should take full responsibility of your investment decision(s) and we accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of our recommendations and/or opinion provided herein or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Comments and opinions forwarded/provided by members/followers of this blog do not belong to the Admin and we take no responsibility of such.